When is the new Toyota HiLux coming? And other important ute updates

Readers of EFTM would know that Apple and Samsung tend to bring out new phones every 12 months.

But the gaps between the arrival of new cars is generally much longer, because each model costs billions of dollars to develop and motor vehicles are far more complex to design, engineer and manufacture compared to phones.

While most car brands do annual running changes – such as a subtle infotainment upgrades, switching from USB-A to USB-C ports, or wireless charging pads – full model changes and midlife model changes are much further apart.

To add to the confusion, the gaps between midlife and major updates can vary depending on the type of vehicle.

As a general rule, most passenger cars such as hatchbacks, sedans and SUVs tend to undergo a full model change every five to seven years (it varies from manufacturer).

However, utes and vans have a longer model lifecycle (usually 10 years at least) because car companies need longer to recoup their upfront engineering cost.

A full model change – in the automotive world – is when the bodywork and interior (and perhaps even the platform on which the vehicle is based) are completely new and barely any parts carry over from the old model (aside from perhaps the wheel nuts).

These full model changes are the big updates most buyers wait for, almost like switching from a Kingswood to a Commodore.

At the halfway point of a vehicle’s model lifecycle – so roughly three years after an all new hatchback, sedan or SUV has launched, and roughly five years after a new ute or van has launched – we start to see the midlife facelifts.

For example, when it comes to the Toyota RAV4, Toyota Camry or Toyota Corolla, there is usually only a slightly different bend in the bumper, perhaps a new grille, and new outline of the headlight lens.

In the case of the recent midlife update to the Isuzu D-Max (pictured above), it received a new front ‘mask’ (headlights, grille, bumper) as well as changes to the tail-lights and wheels, and some interior upgrades.

Car companies often use these midlife updates to bring in new safety features or other convenience technologies that customers are demanding.

It’s also a handy way to combat newer competition. However, the planning for these updates generally takes two to three years.

In other words, as soon as an all-new car drops, the designers and engineers are already working on the midlife facelift.

Which bring us to the Toyota HiLux and when the current generation is due to be replaced.

But first, some quick background.

There is no hard and fast rule when it comes to the timing of new model releases or midlife updates.

However, most car manufacturers try to align their new models to arrive just in time before the next major regulation change – or to meet the next regulation change – so they can maximise the length of time a vehicle is on sale in its latest format.

So here’s where we are at with utes (remembering they tend to have 10-year full model cycles).

The current generation Toyota HiLux came out in 2015 (pictured above) – however it has had two midlife facelifts to keep it fresh against newer rivals, with a new look in 2019 and again in late 2023 (pictured below).

Toyota always remains tight-lipped about its future model plans, but using history as a guide the next generation Toyota HiLux is due some time in 2025.

We are also making this educated guess because there are some new regulations that come into force in 2026, which is another reason for this deadline.

We don’t know for certain what changes will occur with the new model, but here is the speculation so far.

There is one school of thought that the Toyota HiLux will finality switch over to Toyota’s new generation architecture (TNGA-F) which will bring it closer to the Toyota Tacoma pick-up sold in the US and trace some of its DNA to the new LandCruiser 300 Series and new generation Prado.

However, this is an expensive platform and the HiLux is primarily aimed at developing countries in the Asia-Pacific region, which means it needs to keep costs low.

Another possibility (and this is an educated guess also) is that Toyota could make significant updates to the current HiLux frame to make it last another 10 years.

What got us thinking about this option was Toyota’s decision to invest big dollars into an engineering program to create a new suspension layout and wider footprint on the flagship models – Rogue and GR Sport.

These two models got wider axles, repositioned rear suspension points (mounted outboard the chassis rails rather than inboard) for better stability and less jiggle on bumpy roads – and four-wheel disc brakes.

Some people might have dismissed these changes as just wider fender flares.

But the changes were much more than skin deep – and when we saw them for the first time, our initial thought was that Toyota was showing us the foundations of the next model right in front of our eyes.

We put this theory to countless Toyota people who gave nothing away and said we would have to wait.

Frankly, I can see both arguments. The next HiLux would be due to get an all-new platform, but perhaps the company has so much faith in the current one it has decided to strengthen it even further and stick with what it has already tried and tested.

To be fair, the ‘all-new’ Ford Ranger chassis released in 2022 is very closely related to the one that launched in 2011 – but with improvements where it was deemed necessary.

Either way, that’s our first question when the covers eventually come off the next HiLux – it is based on the revised chassis that debuted on the Rogue and GR Sport, or is it all-new like the Tacoma in the US?

As for what is under the bonnet, that is a mystery too. For now.

If Toyota sticks with the current HiLux chassis (but heavily revised) we suspect it could remain a diesel-only proposition (even though a petrol V6 was briefly offered back in 2015).

If Toyota switches to a TGNA-F chassis (F is Toyota-speak for heavy duty ‘frame’ vehicles) then it opens the possibility to petrol hybrid and plug-in hybrid, because US models have or will have these options in the fullness of time.

So apologies for sharing educated guesses here, but we’d rather not take a swing in the dark – and instead be open with you about what the possibilities are.

We are confident, however, around the timing based on historical data – unless of course there are unforeseen delays such as cyclones, floods, semiconductor shortages etc, which have all previously delayed new model rollouts.

Meantime, now we’ve explained how ute model timing works , here’s our best guess on when other new models or updates are due to arrive.

Please note, these timing estimates below have not been confirmed by the car companies – and could be moved forward to respond to market pressure, or pushed back if the vehicle is selling so well they don’t need to change it as quickly.

There is generally a leeway of about 12 months or so from these estimates, depending on market forces.

• Toyota HiLux (this generation went on sale in 2015, new model estimated in second half of 2025 or early 2026)
• Nissan Navara (this generation went on sale in 2015, new model based on Mitsubishi Triton estimated in second half of 2025 or early 2026)
• Mitsubishi Triton (new model just launched, so the facelift is not due until 2028 or 2029 unless a new look is deemed urgent if the current design doesn’t resonate)
• Isuzu D-Max (this generation launched in 2020 and the midlife facelift has just arrived, so new model not due until 2028 or 2029)
• Mazda BT-50 (this generation based on the Isuzu D-Max launched in 2020 and is yet to receive a midlife facelift, which we suspect is imminent but this has not been confirmed)
• Ford Ranger (this generation launched in 2022, so the midlife facelift is not due until 2026 or 2027)
• Volkswagen Amarok (this generation based on Ford Ranger launched in 2022, so the midlife facelift is not due until 2026 or 2027)
• LDV T60 (this generation was launched locally in 2017 and it has had two facelifts since then, new electric version due next year and new diesel version due in late 2025 or early 2026)
• GWM Cannon Ute (this generation launched locally in 2020, so a new generation is not due until 2028 at the earliest – if GWM decides to shorten the timing of its major model update to respond to newer competition)